 When the U.S. Census Bureau issued a projection that the population of the United States will double by the year 2100, I don’t recall that there was any hand wringing or gnashing of teeth around the country.
Maybe that’s because most of those reading the headlines don’t expect to be around by then. Or perhaps they realize that the population won’t double over night, and in the meantime, someone a lot smarter than them will figure out what to do about feeding, clothing and housing them all.
There are some who worry that too few people are worrying. One of them is Richard P. Browne, visiting professor of research in urban design and planning at the Gerald D. Hines College of Architecture at the University of Houston.
“When we think about and contemplate the doubling of our nation’s population, questions come to mind,” says Browne. “As we add another 300 million people to the present U.S. population, what do we expect life to be like?
“Will our cities remain with twice the parking load, double the number of vehicles and traffic on street pavements denied widening by the walls of existing mid-rise and high-rise buildings?
“Has anyone given serious thought that with twice the number of people as now we might build some new cities? Shouldn’t we think of some new cities that are not laid out for horse-drawn wagons as most of our existing cities were before the invention of the automobile?”
Browne believes some totally new cities are needed because “we can’t double the population of our cities without a total failure of present infrastructure capacity.” He says it is possible to build new villages with pedestrian-friendly centers and rationally spaced regional employment centers that reduce highway congestion — if plans are drawn up soon.
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What also concerns Browne is that the doubling of the U.S. population is just an average. The more desirable places will see their populations triple or even quadruple this century. One of those places is the Sunbelt.
“With the invention of air-conditioning, the Sunbelt states now hold an edge over northern cities for expansion in this century,” says Browne. “Unfortunately, at the present time I see no movement to prepare for the avalanche of population that is so large as to require the doubling of infrastructure, housing stock and all other components of modern life.”
Browne says the United States needs to evolve from a nation of “shelter builders” to one of “community builders” if the level of civilization known today is to continue.
“In a nation filled with avid environmentalists who spend their lives worrying about the snail darter, migratory butterflies, Alaskan caribou and turtles on Florida beaches, I have to wonder where is the group that is equally concerned about the environment for humans?”
Browne asks what plans are being made to accommodate the 100 million new homes that will be required. Where are the master plans and regional growth guidelines designed to handle the influx of population?
Some might say that there’s still lots of room to spread out across the country. But that’s the case today, and look at the overcrowding we already have in some urban centers.
As U.S. population density increases, don’t look for any sympathy from Europeans. According to the Census Bureau, U.S. population density in 2100 would be 161.4 people per square mile. That’s about one-fourth the current population density of Germany and the United Kingdom. The United Nations projects the world population will rise from the current six billion to about 9.4 billion in 2100.
So, make a note. If a youngster asks you what they should be when they grow up, you might suggest “homebuilder.” |
