Jan. 17, 2009
You've been there, I'm sure. You're listening to someone confidently reel off statistics about a topic when you get the feeling that something about the information isn't quite right. The person isn't trying to mislead you, and yet …
When you find yourself in that position, have you ever asked the person to cite sources and clarify details? That's when it gets interesting.
I get the feeling that many Texans are in this situation when it comes to the real estate market. Newspapers, Web sites, and TV news have no shortage of headlines and sound bites about plummeting real estate sales prices, skyrocketing foreclosure rates, and a freeze of credit markets. And yet …
Unfortunately, you can't ask the cable news anchor to be more specific about where his numbers come from or what they really mean. But you can look at information specific to Texas, and even better, your local real estate market.
Real estate values have plummeted – just not in Texas. While California saw a 41% drop in the median home price from November 2007 to November 2008 (according to the California Association of REALTORS®), the median sales price in Texas was down only 5% (according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M). Some markets in Texas posted modest increases, while others were down a bit. For example, the median price in Odessa-Midland was up 7% and San Antonio was down 3%. If you want to know what's been going on in your neck of the woods, a Texas REALTOR® can fill you in.
What about foreclosure numbers? Yes, foreclosures were up nationwide for 2008. But the story once again gets more interesting when you look at what's really going on in Texas. We find our state about in the middle of the list – 24th – regarding foreclosure rates (according to RealtyTrac). Texas foreclosures were up about 14% in 2008. Compare that to foreclosure rates in Arizona, where they've jumped more than 200%. Also consider that foreclosures in California and Florida comprise more than 40% of all foreclosure filings in the nation.
Of course, even when you filter out information that doesn't apply to your real estate market, statistics can be more complicated than the simple explanations that come with them – this column being no exception. A big jump or fall in a measurement could say more about what happened last year than what's happening this year. That seems to be the case in many Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and California markets where prices shot up and then fell steeply.
Here in Texas, we pride ourselves on being different. Better. Fortunately, when it comes to real estate, this is generally true these days. And yet … To get the facts about your city, town, or neighborhood, talk to your Texas REALTOR®.
